The bulls of Bitcoin (BTC) have finally gathered enough strength to push the cryptocurrency at its peak, above the $ 60,000 level. Citing key metrics in the chain, analysts believe the bull run has some work to do before it hits significant resistance.
Since falling to over $ 50,000 on March 9, any decline in Bitcoin price has been quickly bought by institutional investors, and the whales’ BTC balance has continued to grow in recent months.
BTC / USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
What’s Next for Bitcoin Price?
In a recent report by Ben Lilly, an analyst at Jarvis Labs, analyst Ben Lilly highlighted the “two steps forward, one step back” of Bitcoin’s price movement over the past week, noting that the price spike was accompanied by “four disadvantages of “Went along with 5%”.
According to Lilly, Bitcoin’s price action bodes well for healthy profit taking, as vertical prices “are only healthy if they break all-time highs,” also known as pricing.
To better understand where the price might be going, Lilly noted that wallet sizes ranging from 100 to 1,000 BTC are roughly 63,000 BTC more than they were on Feb 28, suggesting that these whale wallets have been around since the slump in preparation for the price move higher.
According to Lilly, “this class of wallet was the one that best timed the 2017 rally.”
Number of BTC accumulation addresses. Source: Glassnode
Another bullish indicator highlighted by Lilly is the heavy accumulation that has occurred since the BTC price of $ 20,000 and has not slowed since then.
Lilly said:
“The last time we saw such aggressive accumulation was in August 2017. The peak of this market cycle was not seen for another four months.”
Lilly went on to explain that while it is almost common for Bitcoin price to see occasional drawdowns after hitting a new all-time high, they do little to change the uptrend.
Lilly said:
“To avoid confusion about what we’re trying to say with these charts … Bitcoin has room to run here. If it chooses to rip, it will go.”
AC drains support the bullish narrative
A recent report from Decentrader’s co-founder Philip Swift confirms Lilly’s bullish mood by pointing to bitcoin exchanges’ outflows in recent months. As shown in the chart below, Coinbase and Bitstamp have seen their exchange rates drop significantly since mid-December 2020.
Bitcoin balances on exchanges. Source: Glass Knot
The report highlighted that the reduction in available BTC “is being driven by people and institutions taking Bitcoin off the exchanges to keep it in the cold store”. This, in turn, reduces the supply of fluids available in the market for a quick sale and reduces the changes in a quick sell-out.
Swift has noticed that a large amount of BTC withdrawn from exchanges is being packaged in WBTC and written in DeFi logs. This reduces the bullish narrative somewhat as the tokens are not completely withdrawn from circulation and cooled, which means that the liquidity has not really been reduced.
Another interesting signal discussed by Decentrader is the comparison between Bitcoin that is held for one to two years and Bitcoin that is held for three or more years.
In the past few weeks, BTC, which has been held by investors for less than three years, has been sold as “short-term” holders begin to take profits. While these levels are falling, Bitcoin investors who have been holding for more than three years have actually been piling up lately, and according to Swift, this signals that “Bitcoin is likely to have much more upside potential in the current bull cycle.”
Percent of the Bitcoin supply was last active 1+, 2+ and 3+ years ago. Source: Glass Knot
Swift said:
“If we look at this graph, we can see where we compare to the previous 2017 cycle when those HODL lines behaved similarly … in our opinion we were approaching about halfway through the cycle.”
For David Lifchitz, Chief Investment Officer at ExoAlpha, the price action for Bitcoin between February 22nd and March 11th appears to be the classic cup-and-handle formation, which technical analysis suggests is a bullish pattern. Lifchitz stated that the March 11 price drop was the “top of the cup” for those who monetized the 10% profit from $ 45,000 to $ 57,000. ”
According to Lifchitz, a slight withdrawal of no less than $ 52,000 and rebound would form the handle of the mug. The breakout above the brim of the cup ($ 58,000) would open the door for another uptrend in Bitcoin price.
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