Bitcoin is now trading over $ 7,000 below its high earlier this year – a high that is more than double its previous all-time high. And while cryptocurrency supporters are certain that this is just another pullback before further pricing, the similarities between the 2017 spike and now are undeniably striking.
Here’s how the two potential peaks compare, but why this time could still be very different from the last.
Bitcoin Bubble Returns, But Is It Ready To Pop?
Outside the crypto Twitter echo chamber, financial analysts and economists are again warning that Bitcoin is a bubble that may be inflated even more this time around as part of the “everything bubble”.
And while crypto enthusiasts are quick to write off the notion of naysayers as simply wrong, the current price movement since $ 42,000 is very similar to the 2017 high.
Related reading | The strength of the Bitcoin trend suggests that there is no end in sight. Historically the second strongest
2020 brought Bitcoin to the superstar and from under $ 4,000 to over $ 40,000 at the beginning of 2021. The entire parabolic move was reminiscent of the 2017 hype bubble that made the cryptocurrency a household name.
However, the strength of the trend is not the only way to zoom in on the two rallies for comparison purposes. In fact, current price moves, indicators, and even the patterns that led to the recent high are almost exactly in line with the peak of the 2017 bull run.
There are several similarities between the 2017 peak and now Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Could there be a repeat of 2017 or is it different this time?
In the graph above, the similarities are immediately apparent: there is a sharp rise, followed by a sharp peak. However, this happens so often in Bitcoin that the peaking behavior alone is not enough for you to continue.
What is more compelling, however, is the evening star pattern that culminates with a tiny red doji at the top of the run, combined with two technical indicators that show similar readings.
After temporarily crossing the MACD, the final bullish impulse lasted about a month before the same tool went into the red. Bitcoin crossed bearishly on the MACD yesterday for the first time since breaking $ 20,000.
The MACD crossover was predicted by the hidden bullish divergence of the RSI, which also coincides – then versus now. The fake also coincided with the price, which both times passed the 20-day moving average.
The 2017 moving average on the way back was the last straw before it got extremely bearish. Bitcoin is currently on the ropes against the same moving average and may be ready to go down for the count.
Related reading | Bitcoin Daily MACD is freaking red for the first time since taking $ 20,000
In less than a month after the top pattern was formed and the downward momentum confirmed, Bitcoin fell from $ 20,000 to $ 6,000. Similar goals would result in a crash to at least $ 20,000 this time around.
And while such a move could shake investors who believe it is the front runner, it would be extremely optimistic for Bitcoin to confirm $ 20,000 as the resistance has turned into support, and that previous trading range is likely behind forever to let go
However, investment legend Sir John Templeton warns that some of the most expensive words an investor can mutter are, “This time is different”.
Is it different this time? Or is another bear market coming? Only time can tell.
Featured image from deposit photos, charts from TradingView.com